CBN Projects Petrol Price Increase to N950 Per Litre in 2026

CBN petrol price projection 2026 indicates that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, could rise to about N950 per litre next year, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria.The projection is based on an assumed average crude oil price of $55 per barrel, domestic crude production of 1.5 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar in 2026.

Current Petrol Prices and Dangote Refinery Impact

Currently, petrol produced by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is sold at N699 per litre at the gantry, while retail prices at authorised distributors such as MRS Oil are fixed at N739 per litre.The recent reduction in ex-gantry price from N828 to N699 helped stabilise pump prices nationwide, forcing rival filling stations to lower prices to retain customers.

CBN Outlook on Energy Costs and Inflation

The Central Bank said stronger private-sector investment in domestic refining, improved crude oil production, enhanced security around oil assets, and expanded refining capacity are expected to help contain energy costs.According to the apex bank, these factors, combined with increased competition in the midstream sector, could moderate petrol prices and reduce headline inflation.Inflation is projected to decline to 12.94% in 2026, down from an estimated 21.26% in 2025.

Warnings Over Return to Fuel Imports

Earlier reports revealed that petrol sold for nearly N900 per litre in many parts of the country before Dangote Refinery’s price cut.Dangote Petroleum Refinery has warned that petrol prices could surge to as high as N1,400 per litre if Nigeria returns to heavy fuel imports, stressing that large-scale local refining has helped reduce volatility in the downstream oil sector.

What This Means for Nigerians

The CBN petrol price projection 2026 highlights the importance of sustaining local refining capacity, improving crude oil output, and maintaining stable foreign exchange conditions to prevent sharp increases in fuel prices.Analysts say continued investment in domestic energy infrastructure remains critical to protecting consumers from future price shocks.